Lessons to be learned ....

I hope the polls are wrong and that a majority Tory government is not delivered this Thursday. But if it is, the opposition have some difficult lessons to learn from what has been another woeful campaign:

1)      The election was unnecessary – at least in its timing. Johnson knew he could not secure 50% required for his Brexit deal in HOC or in a new referendum. He calculated however that he could achieve a majority (and claim a Brexit mandate) at a GE with no more than 35% support. Under Fixed Term Act the opposition did not have to agree to an election. They were suckered by the chance of power – but could have achieved far more (in terms of Brexit) in keeping parliament in session.

2)      This should have been an eminently winnable election for Labour. The Tories have been in power for nine years, and even if they had been the most benign of governments, the electorate gets bored after such a period and wants change. This is one of the most unpopular governments on record – and yet still it is likely to win a majority.

3)      The influence of Farage and Brexit party has been greatly exaggerated. Johnson correctly calculated that any pact with the party would be toxic. The only way to nullify their impact (an expected 15+% poll) and to win outright without relying on them was to move to the right and occupy their ground. He has succeeded in doing so – and thereby mopped up a critical 10-15% that would have voted for the BP.

4)      The influence of the LibDems has been greatly exaggerated too. It was a disastrous decision to stand on a Revoke platform. Leavers were guaranteed not to support it (they would not have done in any case), but the position alienated a significant number of Remainers who found the move profoundly anti-democratic and without moral justification. Most importantly, it meant LDs could not be a safe haven for Tory Remainers who could never vote Labour. They will at best stay at home and, at worse, vote tribally for Johnson (to keep Corbyn out). Swinson has proved a massive disappointment as leader – lacklustre and unable to throw off her coalition baggage.

5)      While Labour has produced a truly radical and transformative manifesto, they completely underestimated the extent to which this election would be decided on a single issue. Tories have had one very simple message (Get Brexit Done): easy to understand even if it has no factual basis. Labour has tried to face all ways on Brexit and has ended up alienating its traditional (Leave supporting) base and failing to offer a home to those who would normally not vote Labour but do not want to vote for Johnson. Its apparent prevarication for three years has led some voters to lose faith that they can be trusted. Their election position – negotiate a new deal but then not campaign to support it in a referendum – was an easy target for the Tories.

6)      Having vanquished the Brexit Party, the Tories have presented a united front with a very clear message, which they’ve hammered home at every opportunity. The refusal of Labour to withdraw from any seat, despite other opposition parties withdrawing in their favour elsewhere, ensured that the opposition could not present a united front nor a clear message. Both Labour and LDs have appeared more interested in stealing ground from eachother than from the Tories. The LD's antipathy to the SNP (their opposition to an indy ref is again profoundly anti-democratic) has helped sour the opposition. It’s more than likely that parties supporting a new referendum will receive a larger vote share than those supporting Brexit with no further vote. But their failure to work together may well ensure a Tory majority and the hardest of Brexits.

7)      If the polls are right and the Tories win a majority, then we should expect both Corbyn and Swinson to stand down (Swinson may not even make it as far as the HOC). Both parties have a chance to become more inclusive. There is an opportunity for realignment. But too late for the UK. The union will break up – N Ireland and Scotland will break away – and the rump will be left floundering outside the EU. It will take a generation or more for the UK to recover.